This is how it’s meant to be for Munster: dispatch the tournament’s highest scorers in the quarter-final to be rewarded with facing the tournament’s second-highest scorers. And both away from home. But sometimes you get the feeling they wouldn’t have it any other way.

Paul O’Connell, totemic in his return to action at the Stoop, will need to again be at his inspirational best to take down Clermont in Montpellier. While not an easy task anywhere it’s surely made a touch less impossible by the contest not being held at Clermont’s impregnable Stade Marcel Michelin.

As an occasion it has the potential to be magnificent; Munster’s 5,000 strong (officially) Red Army travel to face the yellow and blue hordes of Clermont who, as Leinster fans will attest, have been second to none in their colour, their support for their side and their willingness to enjoy the long evening afterwards

Munster summoned a performance for the ages in their last Heineken Cup outing but even with Clermont talisman Aurelien Rougerie missing the game through injury they might need to be even better to return with the spoils from the Stade de la Mosson. Along with missing their captain the French side will also be without Gerhard Vosloo; the flanker was excellent against Montpellier winning four turnovers and linking play well with seven offloads.

Losing both Doug Howlett and Donncha O’Callaghan to injury is not trivial; O’Callaghan might not be the starting force that he once was but he remains Munster’s joint leader in both tackles and forced turnovers in their seven games in the 2012/13 competition. As a force from the bench he’ll be missed but, in light of what potentially could have happened had Paul O’Connell been cited after last weekend’s match at Thomond Park, it could have been worse.

Clermont’s running threat is powerful with Nalaga, Sivivatu and Fofana causing general mayhem wherever they care to roam. Those three devastating runners top the Clermont carry list (with the injured Rougerie in fourth) in contrast to the forwards that sit atop the category for the other three semi-finalists.

The scrum, so controversial at times at the Stoop, remains an issue for Munster who’ve secured just 78% of ball from their own put in. In terms of their points scoring a firm set piece platform is more important than to other teams due to their dependency on the scrum and lineout as a source of tries.

In seven rounds of Heineken Cup play there have been a total of 287 tries scored in the competition, with 57% (164) scored from possession starting from scrum or lineout. Eleven of Munster’s 14 tries have come from set piece possession, that’s a massive 79%. In contrast, Clermont have scored just 46% (13) of their 28 tries from possession beginning at their own set piece, running in tries from anything from tap penalties to kick returns to turnover ball. They can hurt you from anywhere.

Defensively-speaking the sides are well matched with both teams having conceded just four tries in their seven games and Munster’s 12 points allowed per game being as close as makes no difference to Clermont’s 11.

If it comes down to a kicking duel, after those two early misses in London Ronan O’Gara kicked a solid six from six. His rate in the competition has been 81%, the only flaw in his place-kicking being the inevitable shrinking of range as Father Time advances. In Morgan Parra, however, Munster are not facing a siege-gun boot. Like O’Gara, the playmaker’s kicking value is found in his 84% accuracy rather than prodigious distance. Clermont’s kickers as a group have shown remarkable consistency in the competition, never once dipping below 71% success rate in a game.

One thing to watch might be Nigel Owens who in this season’s competition has shown a distinct trend towards stamping his authority on the game in the opening 20 minutes of the second half followed by the reverse in the final twenty minutes. In his six games Owens has awarded 36 penalties in the 40-60 minute period with just 21 penalties from the 60th minute onwards.

Sunday’s game is seemingly a straightforward battle of bruising packs and deadly kickers, although with regard to the latter point it should be noted that Owen Farrell’s 76% and Jonny Wilkinson’s 72% are not the sort of success rates of which legends are made. Still, the England legend’s six from six against Leicester and the England (rugby league) legend son’s six from seven against Ulster have perhaps served notice that metronomic service is being resumed.

The Saracens lineout unit is a thing of rare efficiency, ticking along at a 95% success rate and destroying their opponents’ throws. Toulon’s own lineouts are also excellent but they don’t have quite the same disruptive ability on opposition ball.

Toulon are deceptively dangerous with far more strings to their bow than Saracens. Both teams have good set pieces, powerful packs and in Will Fraser and Steffon Armitage we’ll see two open-sides causing trouble for their respective opposition. They’ve also got the two kicking fly halves, as mentioned earlier. But whereas Saracens rarely unleash their undoubtedly talented back three of Goode, Ashton and Strettle the Toulon midfield is much better at bringing their outside backs into play

A small refereeing point, if you’re a person who likes a bar wager it would perhaps be worth having a punt on a high number of penalty attempts in this game. Wilkinson and Farrell both have decent boots and the confidence to have a go from anywhere; referee Alain Rolland has given plenty of scrum penalties. It’s potentially a match made in boring rugby heaven.

Saracens play a simple, effective game based on securing possession and kicking teams into submission; their average of almost 5 penalty goals per game is by some distance the highest in the competition. They don’t really bust any holes, their 7 defenders beaten per match is a tournament low and not even in the same stratosphere as the rest of the semi-finalists. Of all the semi-final teams Sarries sit at the bottom of the pile in offloads, passes, carries and defenders beaten (by a huge distance) but top in kicks from hand. And yet some wonder why it’s been tough to sell tickets for Sunday.

All stats courtesy of the Amlin Opta Index.

N.B. a version of this piece was published as part of the Balls.ie Rugby Nerds Heineken Cup Semi Final Preview