The Unlucky Lions

There are some very lucky men in Gatland’s selection and some very unlucky names left out. And there are others who many will cry over but when viewed a little more objectively might not be as unlucky as one might think.

National allegiences aside, Chris Robshaw is the big name to be left out, omitted in favour of a sworn statement from Dan Lydiate’s doctor and a the hope of seeing the good Tom Croft. Robshaw might not have proven himself to be the greatest tactical captain on the planet but put him in a white jersey and the man puts in a serious shift. In both the Autumn internationals and the Six Nations just passed he finished among the top in tackles, carries and offloads. Kelly Brown too will feel unlucky, the Scottish captain having done a very good Robshaw impression defensively.

Among the locks, assuming that Nathan Hines wasn’t considered because of the French league season the man next in line was probably Donnacha Ryan. He’d proven an able deputy in the absence of Paul O’Connell for Ireland and will hopefully make the standby list, although he’ll have to shade Joe Launchbury to do so. Richie Gray has been a ghost of himself this season even before injury and is going based on memories and potential. Wild card standby candidate: Jim Hamilton.

In the front frow Matt Stevens is the big surprise in the squad having retired from international rugby last year. The roly-poly prop can play both sides of the scrum but whether he’d be a more effective tourist than Mike Ross is open to question.

And then there’s Rory Best. Gutted for the man. But if one takes a step back the outcry over his exclusion might not have been so vocal had the replacement been someone other than the not uncontroversial Dylan Hartley. Had it instead been Matthew Rees or even Ross Ford chosen instead, some might instead have pointed (not unreasonably) to Ulster’s lineout woes (75% success rate in the Heineken Cup this season, worst in the competition) and Ireland’s struggles in the same area. Best is a serious operator around the field especially on opposition ball and perhaps a place on the standby list will still await.

Take a bow, Conor Murray. Not too long ago based on form his test place was being seriously questioned but after a few big performances he’s played himself into the Lions squad. The ommission of Danny Care is interesting as his electric pace makes him an interesting bench option.

Where fly-half is concerned Warren Gatland has said that he asked Jonny Wilkinson whether he could commit to the whole tour and the England veteran gave him an honest no. Hopefully that will not extend to his declining a standby spot because in the touring party only Sexton and Farrell have experience at the position.

In the centres it would have been wonderful to see Billy Twelvetrees. His ability to play a distributing twelve role as well as cover fly half would have been a nice card to have in the deck. As it is, if Sexton goes down injured one would have to question the creative ability inside O’Driscoll no matter who’s selected.

Simon Zebo misses out in the back three positions along with Tim Visser and a host of Englishmen: Chris Ashton, Mike Brown, Alex Goode and Christian Wade. The minor shock inclusion is Sean Maitland with Rob Kearney counting his lucky stars that he had such a wonderous Lions tour to South Africa in 2009.

The standby list will be fascinating.

• In midfield will it be the old stager Wilkinson or solid Dan Biggar? Or the more creative talents of James Hook, Ian Madigan or Freddie Burns?
• Danny Care at scrum half or the versatility of Greig Laidlaw?
• Simon Zebo or one of the Englishmen to cover a wing or full back injury?
• Will Mike Ross do a John Hayes and arrive out late with some veteran heft, perhaps with Rory Best having stayed over at Phil “The Power” Taylor’s house for a month?
• How about Iain Henderson as a late, massively surprising injury replacement?

Whatever happens we’re only at the beginning of a long couple of rugby months and it’s going to be wonderful.

Oh, and who were my Lions? Well below is my own Lions 37 that I’d chosen last night sometime between the wine and the port. This went up both on Twitter (Tweets 1, 2, 3, 4) and on Murray Kinsella’s blog where himself and Cian Treacy had done some good Lions-eve stirring.

• Front Rows: Best, Youngs, Hibbard, Healy, Jenkins, Vunipola, Jones, Cole, Ross
• Locks: O’Connell, Evans, Jones, Hines, Ryan
• Back Rows: Warburton, Tipuric, Robshaw, O’Brien, Heaslip, Faletau

Forward notes… Mike Ross playing 55 minutes would be a completely different kettle of fish to the 75 minute man he’s had to be for Ireland recently. No Tom Croft. If you say I can’t take Hines then I’m taking Jim Hamilton instead – Richie Gray’s a potential once in a generation talent but he’s been a ghost of himself.

• Halfbacks: Phillips, Care, Laidlaw
• Fly Halves: Sexton, Wilkinson, Madigan
• Centres: Twelvetrees, O’Driscoll, Roberts, Tuilagi
• Back Three: North, Cuthbert, Bowe, Brown, Halfpenny, Kearney, Hogg

Back notes… Lots of versatility with Laidlaw, Twelvetrees, Madigan, Brown and Kearney all able to play in a few slots; if Sexton or Wilko got properly injured they’d have Biggar or Farrell across within 30 hours. Care over Murray is a gut feel pick as well as giving a properly different option from the bench. If it’s a squad of 38 I’m adding Wade.

For those with the appropriate mental agility to check the above names against Warren Gatland’s 37 named at 11am this morning by Andy Irvine, we have only 26 names in common. One of us has won a Six Nations and is the Lions coach; the other finished off the port and hit the hay.

A version of this piece was published as part of the Balls.ie Rugby Nerds instant Lions reaction