And here we are. The pool phase is over, the Six Nations has come and gone. It’s knockout time in the Heineken Cup. Eight teams remain in the 2012/13 competition – three French, three English and two Irish. The Welsh, Scots and Italians will all be watching this one from their sofas.

A shared issue for both Ulster and Munster from the pool stages was their quality of place kicking, or lack of. Munster’s 69% success rate was certainly below what fans of the southern province will have come to both expect and enjoy over the years. However, both Toulon (71%) and Leicester (70%) exhibited similar waywardness from the tee. You can win games kicking around 70%, especially in Toulon’s case if you’re outscoring your pool opponents by an average of 2.5 tries per game.

The best kickers left in the competition (minimum of 10 attempts)? Montpellier’s Martin Moyano (93%), Charlie Hodgson (88%), Morgan Parra (87%), Harlequins’ Ben Botica (84%) and Ronan O’Gara (84%). Where’s Owen Farrell? Well he actually only had a 74% success rate from the tee, even including his wonderful 11 from 11 day against Racing Metro in Nantes. Ulster only scored 0.7 tries per game more than their opponents, and between Ruan Pienaar (38%) and Paddy Jackson (69%) they kicked just 57% of their goals. It’s tough to win tight games with that sort of kicking profligacy, even if a couple could be written off to the odd ultra-long-range Pienaar effort.

Munster’s opponents Harlequins were top scorers in the competition with 41 points, albeit in a relatively understrength pool. But Quins were also terrifically disciplined. In their six pool matches Conor O’Shea’s team conceded under eight penalties per game while their opponents conceded over 17. That penalty ratio of +9.5 is quite simply enormous. On the other hand, in a much tougher pool Munster conceded 13.5 penalties per game to their opponents’ 10.8. Penalties aren’t the be all and end all, but to even draw level Munster would need a big swing in their direction on Sunday which will not be easy to do in an away fixture in the Heineken Cup.

Ulster were the best tacklers of the quarter-finalists, in fact their 92% rate was the best in the competition. They also had the best turnover ratio and the competition’s best points defence, conceding just 9 points per game. Ulster had several of the first round leaders in forced turnovers with Rory Best the best of the lot; the Ulster hooker forced 14 turnovers while conceding just a single penalty. The next best mark was Justin Tipuric with 9.

Clermont might have conceded 1.5 points more per game than Ulster but their try defence was magnificent, allowing just one try in every two games. Munster too were stern in this facet of the game, just a notch behind Clermont. Ireland’s two quarter-finalists both had set piece issues in the pool matches, in fact they are the only two of the remaining eight teams to have a combined set piece success rate below the competition average.

In the scrum, Munster will again have to reverse a trend from the pools if they are to exert some dominance in this part of the game; Harlequins had a 95% scrum success rate while Munster lost 25% of their own ball. Ulster were a notch better than Saracens but both were below average of the quarter-finalists. The Leicester pack will have their work cut out for them in Toulon; their French hosts had a 94% scrum success rate while restricting their opponents to a competition-low 72%.

Saracens might have been unremarkable in the scrum but in the first round their lineout performance was magnificent. Mark McCall’s team collected 94% of their own ball and stole almost two opposition throws per game. Ulster’s lineout unit was not so impressive, allowing 2.3 steals per game, losing 25% of their own ball and allowing a 90% success rate on their opponents’ throws. Their 75% rate was the worst in the entire competition. Ulster are the only quarter-finalist to have a negative lineout ratio and that -15% cannot be simply written off to dumb luck.

With two away ties for the Irish provinces, serious holes in some aspects of their games and the Irish coming off a calamitous Six Nations, Ulster and Munster will need every bit of that travelling support to help them to an improbable semi-final berth.

This piece was published as part of the Balls.ie Rugby Nerds Heineken Cup QF Preview