This column will not revisit the general unpleasantness that was Leinster’s experience in the Aviva Stadium on Saturday afternoon; instead it will look forward to answer the question put forward by many in the pubs and living rooms of Leinster’s twelve counties… “What does it mean for Leinster’s chances of qualifying?”

Before rushing headlong in, it’s worth being clear on the qualification process for the Heineken Cup knockout stage.

All six group winners qualify automatically with the top four performers enjoying home quarter-final advantage. The final two qualifiers come from the top ranked non-winners, determined first by points scored then by various tie-breaking measures (from tries scored through to better disciplinary record).

In pool five Leinster currently have ten points, eight behind a cruising Clermont and one ahead of Exeter’s nine. They host the Llanelli Scarlets at the RDS in round five followed by a visit to Exeter’s Sandy Park on the final pool weekend.

In order to even begin the process of wondering how Leinster might qualify for the next stage of the competition, it goes without saying that Leinster have to win both of those encounters. This would see them reach a minimum of 18 points. After that the champions, who have scored just three tries in four matches thus far, will be counting on scoring at least four tries in each of their last two games. That’s a tall order, and one hugely dependent on them getting some of their injured backline superstars back, fit and firing for next spring.

When one views a possible Leinster high score of 20 points, a historical look at the Heineken Cup offers some perspective. In the nine seasons since the bonus point system was introduced, 18 teams have qualified for the knock-out stages as runners-up.

Points: Qualifier (season)

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24 – Gloucester (03/04)

23 – Munster (06/07), Sale (05/06)

22 – Leicester (10/11), Ulster (10/11), Perpignan (07/08), Leinster (05/06), Edinburgh (03/04)

21 – Cardiff (11/12), Ospreys (07/08), Northampton (04/05

20 – Ulster (11/12), Ospreys (09/10 & 08/09), Toulouse (08/09), Northampton (06/07)

19 – Northampton (09/10), Leicester (04/05)

Historically, if Leinster manage to get to twenty points the odds of them going through aren’t appalling. Since 2003/04 a total of nine teams have got exactly twenty points; five (listed above) were rewarded with quarter-final slots but four went home: Ospreys (06/07), Leeds (05/06), Stade Francais (03/04) and, the Welsh regions’ fifth Beatle, the Celtic Warriors, also in 2003/04.

If Leinster reach 19 points, the historical odds would be firmly against them. Since 2003/04 ten teams have attained that mark with just two proceeding onwards.

Two wins with no bonus points? Since 2003/04 no team has qualified for the Heineken Cup quarter-final stage with 18 points. That’s not to say it’s impossible, but history says the odds are firmly against it.

The situation following round four is somewhat similar. With two rounds of games left, predicting all possible results is a fool’s errand. But with some minor prognostication wizardry, here’s a scenario for purely illustrative purposes:

Pool 1: After a three-team dogfight Saracens finish top (22) with Munster (20) edging Racing Metro at home on the last day to finish in second place.

Pool 2: Leicester (22) claim the group win on the last day by beating Toulouse (19) at home.

Pool 3: Harlequins (28) seal a home quarter-final spot by beating Biarritz away, who finish with 14 points.

Pool 4: Ulster (23) finish top; Northampton (18) pip Castres to the runner-up spot.

Pool 5: Clermont top with 27 points; Leinster…?

Pool 6: Toulon (27) travel to Montpellier on the last day and win; Montpellier finish second with 13 points.

In the above scenario, Munster would go through as top runner-up qualifier on twenty points with Toulouse in second place on nineteen. A Leinster on 20 points would go through; a 19-point Leinster would almost certainly lose out on a tries scored tiebreaker with Toulouse.

The lack of tries scored is a major issue for Leinster. Looking past the historical chances of getting through with just 19 points, that total would still see them lose on a tiebreaker with most other contending teams.

Twenty points would undoubtedly be better; looking at the pools after four rounds, it’s impossible for a runner-up from Pool 2 or Pool 3 to reach that total. After that it’s unlikely, barring a large upset, that Montpellier can get beyond 19 points in Pool 6 such is the form of Toulon.

It’s a different story in Munster and Ulster’s pools, however, as it is eminently realistic that the runner-up will finish on twenty points. And that’s still bad news for Leinster in the tie-breaker department.

In summary, in order for Leinster to stand any reasonable hope of going through they require the final two rounds of the 2012/13 pool stages to be remembered for a distinct lack of bonus points being taken combined with runaway group winners in all six pools.

For readers of the blue persuasion who would like to still retain some hope of becoming the competition’s first team to win it three successive times, it might be worthwhile to stop reading now.

For the non-dreamers, read on…

The sad truth is that in the nine seasons of the bonus point era of the Heineken Cup, not once has the winner ever been a runner-up qualifier.

Indeed just one time in those nine seasons has a team who qualified as a runner-up even reached a final, that being the Ulster team who fell to Leinster in last season’s decider at Twickenham.

Based on the history of this competition, Leinster’s defending the trophy for unprecedented second successive year would require them to perform something of a sporting miracle.

If anyone has a little Leinster fan who hasn’t yet been pictured with the Heineken Cup trophy while it’s still theoretically in blue hands, it would behoove them to act to rectify that situation with indecent haste.

This column was published at Balls.ie: http://www.balls.ie/rugby/so-how-fecked-are-leinster/#sthash.OH7ahRHs.dpbs