Published in the Irish Examiner on Saturday, April 27th 2013: http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/rugby/munster-hugely-dependent-on-the-set-piece-for-possession-229683.html

Another gripping weekend of European rugby knockout games is upon us.

But before looking ahead to Munster’s semi-final at Montpellier’s Stade de la Mosson it’s worth recalling the high marks that Rob Penney’s men hit in dispatching Conor O’Shea’s Harlequins.

Munster conceded just 11 turnovers at the Stoop, tackled at a 98% rate and allowed Harlequins to beat just two defenders in 80 minutes of play. Paul O’Connell ruled supreme in the air, securing five Munster throws along with one steal (O’Connell is fourth in the competition in lineout steals despite playing just three games). Munster were superb in almost every facet of the game.

In the kicking stakes both Morgan Parra and Ronan O’Gara have kicked accurately in the tournament, hitting 84% and 81% respectively. Neither, however, have shown massive range; their average attempts have been around the 30 metre mark with neither attempting anything beyond 48 metres.

Munster, for the second successive round, face the highest scorers left in the tournament; their two tries and 22 points per outing dwarfed by Clermont’s four tries and 36 points per game. The French side can hit teams from all angles, punching holes with both forwards and backs. An illustration of their running game can be found in the Amlin Opta Index carry stats where the top four in the Clermont list are all backs; every other semi-final team’s carry leader is a forward.

Clermont have scored tries from possession secured almost every way one can: set piece (13 tries), stolen ball (seven), kick returns (four) and tap penalties (two). Munster, in contrast, have been hugely dependent on the set-piece as a source of possession for their own try-scoring (11 of their 14 tries) and they’ll need to be at their best against the strong Clermont pack in order to set that sort of platform, perhaps along with a repeat of every other aspect of their magnificent quarter-final performance.

Ref-watch: In the Heineken Cup this year Nigel Owens has awarded six penalties per game in the first 20 minutes of the second half but barely over half that in minutes 60-80.

Tomorrow’s Saracens versus Toulon match sees Jonny Wilkinson face Owen Farrell; old master and young pretender. They missed just one place kick between them in the quarter-final round.

Saracens’ pragmatic gameplan is borne out by the statistics; of the four semi-finalists they have the lowest number of carries, offloads, passes and defenders beaten while taking the most kicks out of hand. Saracens have been the best lineout operators in the competition (95% success rate on their own throw) and they kept up that standard against Ulster with a perfect 17 from 17 at the set piece. Toulon, no slouches in the lineout themselves at 90%, suffered surprisingly in the scrum against Leicester and Saracens will hope they can cause the same sort of disruption themselves.

Ref-watch: The scrum could be the source of many opportunities tomorrow when compared to Saturday’s contest. Despite refereeing five games to Owens’ six, Rolland’s total of 46 scrum offences (penalty or free kick) is identical to Owens. This figure gains true perspective when one discovers that Rolland has refereed only 78 scrums compared to Owen’s 123.

The Saracens and Toulon packs will go into tomorrow’s game knowing their match referee has awarded a penalty or free kick in three of every five scrums he’s refereed in the tournament.

N.B. All stats courtesy of the Amlin Opta Index