This piece was published as part of the Balls.ie Rugby Nerds Lions test preview: http://balls.ie/rugby/the-lions-nerds-preview-the-first-test/

Brisbane. Suncorp Stadium. Venue of Quade Cooper and the Reds as they tried to run the Lions off the field earlier in the tour and now the site of the first 2013 Lions test. Instead of Cooper pulling the strings for Australia it’s Genia, O’Connor and Lealiifano and only time will tell if the tactics that so unsettled the Lions on that drizzly Saturday will be used again, although if Robbie Deans hasn’t had the nous to consult Ewen McKenzie closely for this one then he deserves to lose. And heavily.

The Lions side wandering out to face Australia features eight Welshmen in the starting fifteen, four from Ireland and three Englanders. The BNP in their wild intolerance might not be impressed to note that that in the Lions starting side for the first test there will actually be more Welsh players born in England (3) than English players born in England (2), a little gem of a fact plucked from trivia obscurity by the researchers of Infostrada Sports.

Although there are three players making their Wallaby debuts this Australian team will be the most experienced starting XV to take on the Lions with 519 test caps. Despite all that experience none of the current Wallabies faced the Lions in 2001 while Brian O’Driscoll played in all three tests.

At hooker, converted centre Tom Youngs has beaten Richie Hibbard to get the starting nod and has really got around the park on tour putting in 14.5 tackles per 80 minutes; that’s the best mark in the squad ahead of (somewhat surprisingly) Tom Croft’s 13. His throwing, often criticised, has been excellent on tour hitting 19 of 20. The bulkier framed Hibbard is on the bench ready to come in if required.

Adam Jones was always a certain starter at tight head prop although England’s Dan Cole has had a fine tour so far. It’s only responsible to note in dispatches that away from the scrum’s coalface in over two hours of touring match action the hirstute Welshman has had one, solitary carry.

For one, solitary metre.

Any more than that would be a bonus really; Jones is there for one reason and one reason only – to prop. And he does that well. He’s a throwback to the days of traditionally-shaped propping gentlemen who were there to keep a scrum from falling down, keep the bar held up afterwards while trotting gently from lineout to scrum in between. This parish has all the time in the world for the Adam Jones’s of this world, the anti-athletes. Long may they last.

In the second row Ian Evans and Richie Gray, despite their vast size, haven’t really shown enough on tour to be considered as anything more than the engine room of the dirt trackers XV, a unit captained on Tuesday by Rory Best whose lineout woes against the Brumbies became hard to watch. Best has had some bad luck this season with throws being dropped but against Jake White’s men his throwing was dreadful. It has the look of the yips about it and if it doesn’t get cured fast it could be more than just his international career in jeopardy

The lock choice of Alun Wyn Jones and Paul O’Connell provides both leadership and real mobility around the park. O’Connell has got stuck in to the tune of forcing six turnovers thus far on tour, just one behind the leader Justin Tipuric. Geoff Parling’s entrance into the game at any point would probably mean a dropping in the amount of ball being carried but his lineout nous would probably make up for that by creating at least one extra steal.

Tom Croft has had a hugely effective tour, upping his carry and tackle numbers to the point of them being unrecognisable from the stats generated by the player of the same name from the 2012/13 season. And there’s the rub with Croft; he’s capable of great moments – soaring lineout catches and sprints from the half way line – but equally capable of being harder to spot on a pitch than a seagull with an unfashionably white beak flying against a white cloud as a backdrop. In fog.

Bearing that in mind, the non-selection of Sean O’Brien in the match day party is curious to say the least. If Warburton, only recently returned from injury, goes down then who plays at seven? Equally, if the mostly indestructible Heaslip were to step on some Kryptonite there’s no natural fit to move to number eight. Lydiate is very much Gatland’s soldier and there’s obviously a plan of some fashion; perhaps it’s a band-aid in case Croft has one of those AWOL days?

Indeed for all the Sky Sports cheerleading of the Sam Warburton show their lack of respect for Justin Tipuric, even to have in the discussion, has been distinctly odd. The man of the blue millinery had a quiet game against the Brumbies (he was not alone in that, not by a long chalk) but he’s made the most tackles of any Lion on the tour (35) without missing a single one and has forced the most turnovers (7). Warburton’s played over 80 minutes less than him y’say? Well Tipuric’s carried the ball at the same low rate as Warburton while making more tackles per 80 minutes with the aforementioned bundles of turnovers. It’s probably unworthy to question Sky’s objectivity on this issue… after all it’s not as if they’ve made Warburton the centrepiece of a Lions ad campaign.

In the backs, the Lions’ lineup was mostly etched in stone with Alex Cuthbert doing enough to keep his place as one of Gatland’s obligatory Big Strong Men Out Wide. The potential of Jonathan Davies and Brian O’Driscoll with ball in hand is exciting but as a defensive partnership it might be ripe for Australian plucking. Sexton’s defensive responsibility will be enormous, something probably not mentioned enough with Roberts’ unavailability through injury.

Mike Philips was a nailed on cert with Ben Youngs probably a touch lucky to get in ahead of Conor Murray who’s looked a decent Phillips Mk II on tour. Leigh Halfpenny’s kicking form has been sensational and his place was never in doubt.

On the bench, Owen Farrell joins Youngs with Sean Maitland the third back sub; the Kiwi-born Scotsman is certainly lucky to be in ahead of Zebo, Hogg and even Kearney who all provide more natural cover across the back three. Maitland had a trump card though; he’s a Big Strong Man Out Wide and with George North having made a fairly quick return from his own injury scare this is probably Gatland’s thinking.

The Australians have picked James O’Connor at ten; he might not be the threat of either an on-song Quaid Cooper or a sober Kurtley Beale but he’s still a fantastic player in his own right. Multi-code wonder Israel Folau is the true wild card in this series with Robbie Deans hoping that his outrageous Super Rugby form carries onto the international stage. The successful recovery from injury by Digby Ioane will be welcomed by Aussie fans as he averages the most defenders beaten per game in Super Rugby this season (5.4).

If it’s a dry track and both teams decide they want to throw the ball around this could be an absolute belter.

Credit: all player stats courtesy of Opta.

Team: 15-Leigh Halfpenny (Wales), 14-Alex Cuthbert (Wales), 13-Brian O’Driscoll (Ireland), 12-Jonathan Davies (Wales), 11-George North (Wales), 10-Jonathan Sexton (Ireland), 9-Mike Phillips (Wales), 8-Jamie Heaslip (Ireland), 7-Sam Warburton (Wales, captain), 6-Tom Croft (England), 5-Paul O’Connell (Ireland), 4-Alun Wyn Jones (Wales), 3-Adam Jones (Wales), 2-Tom Youngs (England), 1-Alex Corbisiero (England).

Replacements – 16-Richard Hibbard (Wales), 17-Mako Vunipola (England), 18-Dan Cole (England), 19-Geoff Parling (England), 20-Dan Lydiate (Wales), 21-Ben Youngs (England), 22-Owen Farrell (England), 23-Sean Maitland (Scotland).