This article was first published in the print edition of the Irish Examiner on Saturday, January 11th 2014

Ronan O’Gara might be retired and in a different country but for Munster fly half Ian Keatley 2014 looks like being yet another year of battling for his provincial jersey. He’s started all four Heineken Cup matches so far this season but after some unremarkable recent form, especially with the boot, Rob Penney faced a big decision to retain the former Connacht man or go with the bright young shiny thing in JJ Hanrahan.

Penney’s decision to retain Keatley will certainly be taken as a vote of confidence. Munster can lock up a pool victory this evening in Gloucester but if they were to contrive to lose the game they’d go from having had a great chance of securing a home quarter final to perhaps having to fight to qualify at all.

In a six try romp place kicks can be seen simply as punctuation marks atop tries, perhaps something to give the lads a break before mounting the next assault. However, in tight games place kicks take far more importance. Munster have averaged just under six place kick attempts per match this season, three of which have been penalties. If Munster were to have three penalty attempts and three conversion attempts at Kingsholm that’s 15 points on offer from the boot.

Keatley has kicked 39 goals to the Kerryman’s 35 this season, but when one looks at their misses – Keatley’s 19 to Hanrahan’s mere three – it tells quite a different story. In all, Keatley has made 67% of his attempts this season; Hanrahan a superb 92%. Applying those kicking rates to the above scenario equates to one missed kick from Hanrahan but between two and three from Keatley. In a game where the bookies have the handicap at just five points in favour of Munster, a missed kick or two either way could make the contest very tight indeed.

In defence too there are differences. Keatley and Hanrahan have made 61 and 68 tackle attempts this season, figures that look similar enough until one notes that the junior man has played 210 fewer minutes in the Rabodirect Pro 12 and Heineken Cup than today’s starter. Taking that into account, the raw stats say Hanrahan gets to Keatley’s number of tackles then half as much again.

Before anointing JJ as a defensive master, however, it’s worth digging deeper. Matches started by Hanrahan this season saw Munster needing to make an average of 20 more tackle attempts than those started by Keatley (135 to 115). That difference might only make up about half of the gap but it’s enough to say that the raw tackle numbers are perhaps not what they might seem on the surface.

Finally, it’s obviously good news for Munster that Damien Varley is fit to start against Gloucester. However, if he has to retire from the field it’s worth noting that in his limited game time Duncan Casey has been excellent at the lineout, hitting all 16 of his lineout throws this season.

Credit: playing stats courtesy of Opta