A version of this piece was published in the Irish Examiner, Saturday December 7th 2013 (not available online).

Munster v Perpignan

Munster’s back to back games with Perpignan will decide the fate of Pool 5. Against Edinburgh and Gloucester Munster averaged a very high 19 minutes of active possession per game and still won a remarkable 33 turnovers. Possession is something that Perpignan have been living without this season – they’ve averaged just 12 minutes of active possession per game in the Top 14, forcing their opponents to attempt just 78 tackle attempts per match.

Munster’s lineout has been excellent in the Pro 12 (92%) and they’ve averaged two steals per game. Their Heineken Cup dart throwing has not been so impressive, however, particularly on Mike Sherry’s watch – the 25 year old, now out with knee ligament damage, lost five of his 11 Heineken Cup throws. Overall for the season the two Munster hookers have shown fine throwing form with Damien Varley hitting 92% and Sherry 86%.

Perpignan might be top of Heineken Cup Pool 6 but sit in 9th place in the Top 14. Munster lead the Pro 12 and the Thomond faithful, while not taking their opponents for granted, should not fear them.

Ulster v Treviso

Ulster’s away win in Montpellier has provided a platform to both win Pool 5 and secure a home quarter final. They face Treviso at Ravenhill knowing that anything less than a five point haul will be a poor night’s work.

Despite having a decent set piece in Pro 12 play Treviso’s lineout has been appalling in their two Heineken Cup games so far, hitting just 59% of throws and disrupting just a single opposition lineout from 29. Johann Muller’s Ulster forwards will target this relentlessly. The one weapon in Treviso’s armoury has been their goalkicking; their 88% rate in league games is the best in Europe.

Toulouse v Connacht

Connacht, currently in second place in Pool 3, will have dropped to third by the time they kick off on Sunday in Toulouse courtesy of Saracens beating Zebre. The bookies have Toulouse as 1/200 favourites to win and even a bonus point loss would be a magnificent achievement for the Westerners.

Northampton v Leinster

Leinster face a stern test at Franklin’s Gardens. Northampton are in superb form losing only a single Premiership match all season. They’ve scored 3 tries per game domestically, had the top goal kicking percentage in the league (84%) and have made the most clean breaks per game (6.6).

Leinster, second-highest scorers in the Pro 12, have made teams work hard at the breakdown. Leinster’s Pro 12 opponents have lost a league high 5.3 rucks per game with Ospreys and Castres losing 16 between them against the blues in the Heineken Cup. Sean O’Brien has been a poaching machine, winning a Heineken Cup leading seven turnovers.

Last December Leinster took just two points from their two Clermont games to effectively scupper their chances of making the quarter finals. It was the first time that Leinster had emerged from the traditional December back to back fixtures without a win. They’ll not want a repeat.

Credit: all playing stats courtesy of Opta.