Warning. There are a lot of numbers in this piece. But they’re not scary numbers. No calculus. No fractions. Not even a decimal place. It’s a look at how Ireland and Argentina have got on over the last season or so and whether that can possibly give us some insight into Saturday’s game.

Since August of 2011, Argentina have played 15 test matches against sides from either the Six Nations or the Rugby Championship. In the same time period, Ireland have played 16 such games. The decision to restrict this to teams from the two major international rugby tournaments rules out the Georgias, Russias, Chiles and Uruguays of this world, none of whom would ever expect to seriously threaten either team facing off at Lansdowne Road this weekend*.

*that being said, it’s worth taking a moment to remember back to Bordeaux in 2007 and our friends from Namibia and Georgia. Sweet Moses…

• Argentina’s record against Six Nations or Rugby Championship sides: Won 4, Lost 10, Drawn 1
• Ireland’s record against Six Nations or Rugby Championship sides: Won 4, Lost 11, Drawn 1

Fairly even, you’ll agree.

In order to neutralise things a bit, let’s have a look at how both teams have done in that time when playing away from their home crowd. Note that this includes the Rugby World Cup in New Zealand where both Ireland and Argentina were of course playing on foreign soil.

Neatly, both teams have played eight such contests.

• Argentina: Won 1, Lost 7
• Ireland: Won 1, Lost 6, Drawn 1

Fairly even once again. So let’s look deeper at those games.

• When playing away from Argentina, Los Pumas have scored an average of 14 points per game while conceding 23.
• When playing away from Ireland, Kidney’s men have scored an average of 13 points per game while conceding 23.

Still fairly even. Startlingly so, in fact. But that second stat overlooks an obvious factor that must be included in any discussion about Saturday; Ireland will enjoy home advantage.

Ireland at home have racked up a much happier points differential, scoring an average of 23 points per games to the opposition’s 18. Unfortunately, however, in this time Ireland’s only two home wins came against Scotland and Italy who have been the weakest of the Six Nations herd in recent years.

Since Scotland and Italy are 10th and 11th respectively in the IRB World Rankings, and Ireland are playing Argentina to stay in the top eight for the Rugby World Cup 2015 draw, let’s have a look at how both teams have fared purely against teams in the top eight of the world right now. To be clear, that’s:

1. New Zealand
2. South Africa
3. Australia
4. France
5. England
6. ARGENTINA
7. IRELAND
8. Wales

Since August 2011 Ireland have played 12 such matches to Argentina’s 13 with both nations having played each of the other six teams at least once in that time. How have they both performed?

• Ireland have averaged 13 points scored to 25 against
• Argentina have averaged 15 points scored to 28 against

That’s still fairly even.

Let’s remove home advantage once again and look at both teams’ records against top eight opposition on foreign soil; things again edge  very slightly towards Argentina:

• Argentina: average score of 14-25
• Ireland: average score of 12-27

Yes, that Irish average scoreline is weighed down by an unmerciful 60-0 thrashing at the hands of the All Blacks but that result shouldn’t simply be discounted. Why not?

• Firstly, it happened. Blowout scorelines should not simply be erased from the record as being flukes; the players played in them and the results, caps and stats go down in the history of test rugby*. They reveal something about both teams, both victor and vanquished.
• Secondly, even if you take it out Ireland’s average improves only slightly to 13-23.
• Thirdly, Argentina suffered two thrashings of their own in their home games, inflicted by New Zealand (54-15) and France (49-10), and they happened too.

*unless you’re unlucky enough to play a match in Ireland away from the A*i*a Stadium in which case there simply was no test match. It did not happen. It definitely wasn’t on television in glorious HD, Craig Gilroy didn’t score a hat-trick on his international debut and John Muldoon most definitely did not sustain serious ligament damage. In fact if you had met a Fijian man in Limerick on a night like that and asked him “are you playing an international test match against Ireland?”, he would be honour-bound to answer in the negative even while attempting one of 23 missed tackles. No, if you play in one of those games then they simply don’t appear in the history of test rugby. Why that is and whether it is right and proper is for another day’s column.

But Ireland are still playing at home. So, how have Ireland done at home against other nations from the top eight? They’ve averaged 16-21. Not great, but it’s six points better than the average of 14-25 that Argentina have suffered away from home since August 2011.

That might make us feel a little better.

Until you remember that those games were played by Irish teams with a quorum of Brian O’Driscoll, Paul O’Connell, Rory Best, Stephen Ferris, Sean O’Brien and Rob Kearney all reporting for duty.

So what does all this mean?

Well in one sense it’s just a load of numbers and in such a small number of games a “Careful: Small Sample Size” health warning always comes attached. But if these teams were both at full strength for Saturday you’d probably give a three point edge to Ireland for home advantage and probably another point or two to take into account an O’Driscoll moment. This is reflected in the 5.5 point handicap currently offered by Betfair*, with 5 points on offer at Paddy Power*.

*both prices confirmed at the time of writing.

But Ireland go to into this game without a phalanx of hobbled stars, and if you add that into the equation this game might just be a pick ’em at best for the Irish with their home advantage nullified by the lack of some of Declan Kidney’s most crucial impact players.

The mass-market money will be on Ireland, and Craig Gilroy might yet be the next Shane Williams, but the betting man in me is taking Argentina and any points the bookies will give me.

This article had its beginnings in an email* included in the Balls.ie Ireland vs. Argentina rugby nerds debate:http://www.balls.ie/rugby/rugby-nerds-email-debate-does-this-ireland-team-have-the-mentality-to-beat-argentina/ 

*some stats corrected