According to many pundits, both professional and armchair, Declan Kidney has taken a massive gamble in picking 21 year old Paddy Jackson as Ireland’s out half against Scotland on Sunday.

Since World War Two the list of 21 year old Irish out halves is not a long one. Jack Kyle, born in Belfast in January 1926, won his first cap in January 1947 just two weeks after his 21st birthday; that’s about six weeks younger than Jackson is now.

Since that day in 1947 just five other men have been named at fly-half for Ireland at Jackson’s age or younger:

On Sunday when Jackson runs out wearing the number ten shirt at Murrayfield, take note; it’s something that hasn’t happened in 32 years, not since Paul Dean played as a 20 year old against South Africa in Cape Town in 1981.

In the two weeks since Ronan O’Gara had what an Australian might call a “very average” performance against England, the focus has been concentrated on the decision* for the number ten shirt. That’s understandable. Ronan O’Gara is a rugby deity and Paddy Jackson is, well, young.

* The exploration of precisely how Kidney ensured that this decision was between O’Gara and a man fifteen years his junior without serious consideration of anybody in between is probably a column for another day.

However, on Sunday afternoon when the anthems are playing in Edinburgh Jackson will be joined by Luke Marshall who is somewhat shockingly short of experience in anything approaching big games. In terms of big
game experience Jackson is light years ahead of his fellow Ulsterman playing at 12.

Both Jackson and Marshall played the full 80 minutes in Thomond Park against Fiji last Autumn and both played well. They looked comfortable in the green jersey even if it wasn’t designated as a full test match.

To be clear, Marshall’s a superb talent. Solidly built but with excellent distribution skills, as befitting a former schools out half, he’s clearly got the potential to be a test player.

But it’s quite remarkable just how little experience he has.

Luke Marshall has played a total of 41 minutes of Heineken Cup rugby, never more than 12 minutes in one game.

Paddy Jackson has played in a Heineken Cup semi-final and final; he’s been the Ulster starting 10 this season apart from the final pool match in Castres when a Paul Marshall / Ruan Pienaar axis was chosen instead; even then Jackson played the final 26 minutes.

But should we care about Luke Marshall’s lack of Heineken Cup experience? With the greatest of respect for the Scottish players and the country’s long rugby tradition, they are not the All Blacks. Eleven of the starting fifteen men play for Glasgow and Edinburgh every week in the Pro 12; in all just five of the 23-man match day squad play their club rugby outside Scotland.

Ability is one thing, intensity is another. Test rugby carries with it its own jump in both physicality and pressure. It will be very interesting to see how Marshall copes with that as he’s faced very little like it before.

To conclude, back to Paddy Jackson and Declan Kidney’s “risk” in picking him. Picking Jackson isn’t a risk; for the good of Irish rugby picking anybody younger than O’Gara is actually a necessity.

Picking Marshall over, say, Fergus McFadden who could also have doubled as place-kicker on the day either instead of or alongside Jackson is certainly a risk. After all, with McFadden not even in the squad on Sunday, if Jackson happens to look shaky from the placed ball Declan Kidney has effectively ensured that he’ll have to introduce Ronan O’Gara no matter how well Jackson might be playing otherwise.

In the 2011 Rugby World Cup quarter final Declan Kidney replaced his starting fly-half by picking Ronan O’Gara over Jonathan Sexton. It was not a success. The Six Nations takes place every year but after that
quarter final match Ireland had to look at four more years before they’d have another crack at a World Cup.

On Sunday with the two young Ulstermen playing at 10 and 12 Ireland will have taken a big stride towards 2015 no matter what the result against Scotland might be.

This piece was published as part of a Balls.ie Rugby Nerds preview: http://balls.ie/rugby/balls-ie-rugby-nerds-ponder-the-weekends-six-nations/