Final Weekend of the Six Nations
There’s just one round of games to go in the 2013 Six Nations championship and since a free-scoring first weekend it’s been a fairly dour series with very few tries scored.
Here’s a quick look at some good news and bad news for each team along with some Six Nations team records that could possibly be broken on Saturday.
ENGLAND
Good news: They’re top of the table and playing for a Grand Slam. This is an unremarkable but terrifically well-organised England team. Organisation is not a new phenomenon for English Six Nations teams; since 2000 every other Six Nations country has endured at least two seasons in which they conceded an average of at least two tries per game. England have never done so, and with one game to go this team is no exception.
Bad news: Their attack is unremarkable, being outscored by Wales and only ahead of Scotland by a nose.
WALES
Good news: Wales are the top point scorers in the championship, scoring 30% more points than the average team in this year’s Six Nations. They also have the best try defense.
Bad News: Wales have already conceded more points in four games (63) than they conceded in five games in 2012 (58).
SCOTLAND
Good news: Scottish fans are seeing points on the board! The four games (33.3% of all games) involving Scotland have accounted for 39% of all points scored in the championship to this point. The Scots are on pace to score the most points any Scotland team has scored in the Six Nations era and need 14 points against France to lock it up.
Bad news: Those Scottish fans are seeing points on the board for both teams; Scotland are conceding half a point more than they’re scoring themselves.
IRELAND
Good news: If Ireland hold Italy to 14 points or less it will see Kidney’s team achieve Ireland’s lowest ever points conceded total in the Six Nations.
Bad news: Kidney’s team is also on pace to achieve Ireland’s lowest ever points scored total in the Six Nations. In both 2008 and 2011 Ireland scored just 93 points in five games and to avoid the dubious honour of setting a new record Ireland must score 37 points in Rome. This season’s combination of stern defence and toothless attack have combined to give the Irish watching public a fairly dour Six Nations experience. 2013 Six Nations games involving Ireland have seen just 27% of points scored in the championship. Only two teams have ever “achieved” lower values than that; coincidentally they were both Scottish (2001: 26.1%; 2006: 25.3%).
ITALY
Good news: If Italy hold Ireland to 24 points or less this will have been their finest defensive performance in the Six Nations since they became that sixth nation in 2000. The better news is that this is no flash in the pan, they set their previous defensive best just last season. Italy are still conceding a championship-worst 24 points a game but that’s a long way from those days in the early 2000s when Italy allowed over 40 points per match. Italian games in the Six Nations simply aren’t the points-fests they used to be.
Bad news: Italy are still conceding almost twice as many points as they manage to score.
FRANCE
Good news: Their defense isn’t completely awful, allowing 19 points per game.
Bad news: France need to score 52 points against Scotland to avoid being the lowest-scoring ever French team in the Six Nations. To put the likelihood of their scoring 52 points in context, they’re currently averaging 12.5 points per match.
A version of this piece was published as part of the Balls.ie O2 Rugby Nerds preview of the final Six Nations weekend.