On Sunday Leinster will march out onto the Stade Marcel-Michelin pitch before an expectant 18000 people crowded into Clermont’s steep-sided stadium. Expectant they might well be, for quieting that crowd would mean beating Clermont-Auvergne on their own patch; that’s something that no rugby team has achieved in either domestic or European competition since 2009.

Going into the game Leinster are in second place in the Group 5 table, matching Clermont with two wins from their opening two games but without the French side’s two winning bonus points.

 Heineken Cup – Group 5 Table

1. Clermont (10)

2. Leinster (8)

3. Scarlets (1)

4. Exeter (1)

Domestically, both Leinster and Clermont are third in the Rabo and Top 14 respectively and since the last round of the Heineken Cup in October both teams have played four domestic matches, winning three apiece.

 Clermont’s recent record…

W 19-12 Biarritz (h)

W 18-11 Agen (a)

W 24-21 Toulon (h)

L 22-30 Toulouse (a)

Leinster’s recent record…

W 59-22 Cardiff (h)

L 10-19 Ospreys (a)

W 6-0 Glasgow (a)

W 37-7 Zebre (h)

There the similarities end as Clermont had to go through teak-tough opposition in Toulouse, Toulon, Biarritz and Agen while Leinster had rookies Zebre, a wet day in Glasgow, a bad away loss to Ospreys and a Halloween laugher against a Cardiff side who should have felt a moral obligation to refund any travelling Welsh supporters their travelling expenses plus a signed apology apiece.

There is no doubting which of Sunday’s two teams is better prepared for a tough match, and no matter how well their Irish Internationals might have performed against Argentina (another team who looked oddly disinterested) it’s not the men from the RDS.

And from Leinster’s point of view, that’s not the only problem.

While conceding just a single try in their two Heineken games so far, Leinster’s own tryline has been oddly porous this season in league play conceding 25 tries in just ten games.

For perspective, 25 tries is the exact same number that Leinster conceded in all 22 games two seasons ago and it trails a mere three behind last season’s campaign allowance of 28.

With all due respect to the Rabo’s minnows, to average concession of 2.5 tries per game is something seen only of Italian teams, who at least have inexperience on their side, and whichever Scottish team is taking the season off. Such generosity should not be a trait displayed by the European champions twice over.

In contrast, Clermont’s defence has been forebodingly stern, allowing just 15 tries in 12 league games and just one in European play.

Nor does looking at Leinster’s European performances so far this year inspire a surge of blue-hued confidence. They opened their Heineken account this season with turgid three-point and seven-point wins against Exeter and Llanelli on the first two match days, going over the whitewash themselves just once over the two games.

Clermont, in contrast, put 49 points on the Scarlets and 46 on the Chiefs scoring 11 tries in the process. That sort of try-scoring combined withLeinster’s defensive generosity so far this season does not a happy marriage make.

And then there’s the small matter of Clermont at home being the equivalent of the 1972 Miami Dolphins.

The Stade Marcel-Michelin has played host to a remarkable 50-match unbeaten run by Clermont-Auvergne, the most recent of these being their 24-21 win over Top 14 leaders Toulon. To find their last defeat one must go all the way back to November 21st 2009, a 16-19 loss to Biarritz in their only defeat of the campaign, and for their second last one must go back another full year to October 25th, 2008 when they lost to Montauban*. That’s two home defeats in more than four years, a simply staggering achievement.

 * In an odd coincidence, Montauban were in Clermont’s Heineken Cup group in that same 2008/09 season. Clermont did the double over Montauban in the group stages, with their win in Montauban occurring just six days before that October loss in Stade Marcel-Michelin. Rugby… it’s a funny old game.

But it’s not all bad news for Irish hearts. Lest it somehow be forgotten, Leinster are defending Heineken Cup champions twice over and have their own 18 match unbeaten record in Europe on the line.

Neatly, their last defeat in the competition came at the hands of Clermont in that same Stade Marcel-Michelin with Brian O’Driscoll as absent as he will be on Sunday.

Clermont’s team for this weekend’s encounter is as star-studded as one might expect. In the backs they sport a back three of Byrne, Sivivatu and Nalaga; the wonderful Rougerie and Fofana in the centre; the twin-kicking threat of halves Brock James and Morgan Parra.

 The pack begins with a front row of Debaty, Kayser and Zirakashvili. Second row: the bruising, uncomplicated force of Jamie Cudmore alongside Leinster old-boy Nathan Hines. A back row of Bonnaire, Lapandry and Chouly.

 It’s a wonderful collection of talent and when they click, as they so often do at home, they are irresistible.

 Which makes Leinster’s team selection, injuries notwithstanding, somewhat curious.

 15: Ian Madigan

14: Fergus McFadden

13: Gordon D’Arcy

12: Andrew Goodman

11: Isa Nacewa

10: Jonathan Sexton

9: Isaac Boss

1: Cian Healy

2: Sean Cronin

3: Mike Ross

4: Leo Cullen (c)

5: Damian Browne

6: Kevin McLaughlin

7: Sean O’Brien

8: Jamie Heaslip

 REPLACEMENTS:

16: Richardt Strauss

17: Jack McGrath

18: Michael Bent

19: Devin Toner

20: Shane Jennings

21: Eoin Reddan

22: Fionn Carr

23: Andrew Conway

In the backs, the inclusion of Isaac Boss makes sense in what is likely to be a hugely physical contest. Boss has looked keen and sharp during recent weeks, even during his 15 minutes on the wing against Zebre.

Interestingly Schmidt has opted to retain Andrew Goodman from that Zebre game at inside centre and the big New Zealander will certainly face a Heineken baptism of fire against Rougerie and Fofana. He’ll have Gordon D’arcy outside him, playing two games in a row at outside centre probably for the first time since the days when his inside partner was a pre-wing Shane Horgan.

In the forwards, Shane Jennings has been left to sit on the bench. Yes, Sean O’Brien is a player of proven talent but he’s coming back from a long stretch out injured and Jennings has been superb this season. He’s also the best spoiler in the land, something that would be very valuable when trying to disrupt the Clermont home rhythm.

Oddly, the newly capped Richardt Strauss joins Jennings in riding the pine. For a game of this magnitude that’s a head-scratcher. And unless David Kearney is injured, Fionn Carr’s inclusion on the bench is another odd one.

As a rugby player, Fionn Carr has developed much along Robbie Keane lines in that he’s exactly the same as when he was a young whippet playing with the pros for the first time. He’s never developed. Ken Early wrote an outstanding Examiner piece on Robbie Keane some time back outlining this point and a similar piece could be written about Carr. Although a naturally gifted runner with ball in hand, when a winger at any level stands five yards inside his own in-goal area to defend a five yard scrum then that’s just not good.

Andrew Conway, on the other hand, has certainly developed and would not have looked out of place in the starting lineup. However, one can understand that Schmidt would prefer the more physically imposing Nacewa and McFadden.

Barring a drawn encounter, this weekend one team’s unbeaten record will fall. The omens are not good for the Leinstermen.

Prediction: Leinster gut it out and emerge with an unlikely losing bonus point. The wild-eyed optimist might also hope that Clermont would be prevented from getting a try-scoring bonus of their own.

 

This piece was published on Balls.ie: http://www.balls.ie/football/rugby-nerds-heineken-cup-preview-leinster-and-munster-in-the-belly-of-the-beast/#sthash.m8ZzOiQx.dpbs